India’s GDP projected to grow 7.4% in FY 2025–26: NSO Estimates

India’s economy is projected to grow by 7.4 per cent in real terms in the financial year 2025–26, according to the First Advance Estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on Wednesday.

Nominal GDP is estimated to grow by 8.0 per cent in FY 2025–26, the data showed.

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Notably, real GDP adjusts for inflation by using constant base-year prices, while nominal GDP uses current market prices, reflecting overall economic output including inflation.

Buoyant growth in the services sector has emerged as a major driver of the estimated real Gross Value Added (GVA) growth rate of 7.3 per cent in FY 2025–26.

At constant (2011–12) prices, real GDP is estimated at ₹201.90 lakh crore in FY 2025–26, compared with ₹187.97 lakh crore in the previous year.

Nominal GDP is expected to rise to ₹357.14 lakh crore, registering a growth of 8.0 per cent.

The NSO data highlighted that financial, real estate and professional services, along with public administration, defence and other services in the tertiary sector, are estimated to record a robust growth rate of 9.9 per cent at constant prices in FY 2025–26.

Real GVA is estimated at ₹184.50 lakh crore in FY 2025–26, against the provisional estimate of ₹171.87 lakh crore for FY 2024–25, reflecting a growth rate of 7.3 per cent.

Nominal GVA is projected to reach ₹323.48 lakh crore during FY 2025–26, up from ₹300.22 lakh crore in FY 2024–25, showing a growth rate of 7.7 per cent.

The NSO data also indicated that manufacturing and construction are expected to support overall growth, with the secondary sector projected to expand by 7.0 per cent.

Trade, hotels, transport, communication and broadcasting-related services are estimated to grow by 7.5 per cent. In contrast, the agriculture and allied sector is expected to record a relatively moderate growth of 3.1 per cent.

Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) is projected to grow by 7.0 per cent, indicating steady household spending. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), a key indicator of investment activity, is estimated to rise by 7.8 per cent, up from 7.1 per cent in the previous financial year.